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OIL: Citi Maintains Brent Base Case at $74/bbl for Q4 2024

OIL
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Citi maintains a base case for Brent of $74/bbl for Q4 2024 and $65/bbl for Q1 2025, according to Bloomberg citing a note published yesterday before news that Israel may limit retaliation against Iran to military targets.

  • The base case shows falling prices “owing to weak underlying oil market fundamentals” and has a 60% likelihood.
  • A bear case, which includes OPEC+ raising production starting in December shows Brent at $60/bbl for Q4 and $55/bbl for Q1.
  • Its bull case for Brent oil was raised from $80/bbl to $120/bbl on potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and reflects “heightened potential of the market to fear or realize supply losses during the months ahead.”
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Citi maintains a base case for Brent of $74/bbl for Q4 2024 and $65/bbl for Q1 2025, according to Bloomberg citing a note published yesterday before news that Israel may limit retaliation against Iran to military targets.

  • The base case shows falling prices “owing to weak underlying oil market fundamentals” and has a 60% likelihood.
  • A bear case, which includes OPEC+ raising production starting in December shows Brent at $60/bbl for Q4 and $55/bbl for Q1.
  • Its bull case for Brent oil was raised from $80/bbl to $120/bbl on potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and reflects “heightened potential of the market to fear or realize supply losses during the months ahead.”