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OIL: Citi See Oil Market Deficit Supporting Brent in the $70-75/bbl Range

OIL
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Citi bank analysts expect a counter-seasonal oil market deficit of around 0.4-m b/d in Q4 2024 which should support Brent prices in a  $70-75/bbl range the bank said in a client note this week.

  • On the supply side, ongoing supply losses from Libya, improved OPEC+ compliance from Russia, and delayed tapering by OPEC+ are near term signposts to watch Citi analyst added.
  • “We still see renewed price weakness in 2025 with Brent on a path to $60/bbl, building a surplus of 1-m b/d even if OPEC+ holds production cuts through the whole year with compliance slipping again,” Citi analysts said.
  • “Money managers (MM) holding a record short position on ICE Brent keeps the potential there for upward price gap risk on surprise geopolitical, weather, or supply shocks,” they added. 
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Citi bank analysts expect a counter-seasonal oil market deficit of around 0.4-m b/d in Q4 2024 which should support Brent prices in a  $70-75/bbl range the bank said in a client note this week.

  • On the supply side, ongoing supply losses from Libya, improved OPEC+ compliance from Russia, and delayed tapering by OPEC+ are near term signposts to watch Citi analyst added.
  • “We still see renewed price weakness in 2025 with Brent on a path to $60/bbl, building a surplus of 1-m b/d even if OPEC+ holds production cuts through the whole year with compliance slipping again,” Citi analysts said.
  • “Money managers (MM) holding a record short position on ICE Brent keeps the potential there for upward price gap risk on surprise geopolitical, weather, or supply shocks,” they added.