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Oil Continues To Unwind Overbought Conditions

COMMODITIES
  • A more muted day after large swings of late, with crude oil prices continuing to decline after yesterday’s heavy unwinding of overbought conditions whilst gold edges higher.
  • ICE raised the margin on Brent crude oil futures by 32%, potentially bearish for oil over the short-term. Separately, White House Press Secretary Psaki signalled it isn’t inclined to tap the Defense Production Act to spur energy production.
  • WTI is -2.4% at $106.2, with support from the 20-day EMA of $101.8 and resistance at $115.24 (50% retracement of yesterday’s range).
  • Brent is -1.8% at $109.2 compared with support at $104.23 (20-day EMA) and resistance at $117.73 (50% retracement of yesterday’s range).
  • Gold is +0.2% at $1996.1 with safe-haven buying a larger driver than US CPI which came in exactly on expectations, albeit with some nuances. After small moves compared to recent swings, resistance remains at $2070.4 (Mar 8 high) whilst support is $1961.2 (Mar 7 low).
  • European gas slumped -19-20%, helped by milder weather forecast and with some profit-taking, but remains up 75-80% ytd.

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