MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Oil Could Rise 10$/bbl if Middle East Conflict Escalates: RBC

OIL

If the Israel-Hamas war worsens oil could rise 10$/bbl or more according to RBC Capital Markets LLC.

  • Spare capacity within OPEC+ could make up the difference to any disrupted exports from Iran due to the war in Israel to help cap price gains from a knee-jerk price reaction.
  • The duration and sustainability of rally is “up for debate” amid issues including OPEC+ spare capacity, year-end positioning, looser supply-demand balance in 1H 2024, possible Iranian production slippage, and the potential return of Venezuelan exports.
  • “As much as we focus on the fundamentals of the oil market, we must also respect that, at times, this is as much of a momentum-based market as well.”
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