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Oil Could Rise 10$/bbl if Middle East Conflict Escalates: RBC


If the Israel-Hamas war worsens oil could rise 10$/bbl or more according to RBC Capital Markets LLC.

  • Spare capacity within OPEC+ could make up the difference to any disrupted exports from Iran due to the war in Israel to help cap price gains from a knee-jerk price reaction.
  • The duration and sustainability of rally is “up for debate” amid issues including OPEC+ spare capacity, year-end positioning, looser supply-demand balance in 1H 2024, possible Iranian production slippage, and the potential return of Venezuelan exports.
  • “As much as we focus on the fundamentals of the oil market, we must also respect that, at times, this is as much of a momentum-based market as well.”

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