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OIL: Crude Awaits Israel Response as US Crude Inventories Rise

OIL
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Crude markets are edging higher today after a decline yesterday as the Middle East risk premium moderated, with a firm US dollar and on comments that there are no changes to the OPEC+ deal under discussion. Brent however rebounded from a low of $75.15/bbl after a larger than expected US crude inventory build.

  • Israel's retaliation against Iran is still awaited as the US continues to discourage Israel from targeting oil facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden spoke on a call yesterday to discuss Israel’s response.
  • Better China related asset sentiment has likely helped oil at the margins today. Today the PBoC opened applications for a swap facility that is aimed at supporting local equity markets. This comes ahead of Saturday's fiscal briefing from the MoF.
  • EIA yesterday showed US crude inventories rose more than expected by 5.8mbbl driven by another bigger than expected drop in refinery utilisation and increase in production back up to record levels of 13.4mbpd.
  • Hurricane Milton which made landfall on Florida's west coast, resulted in significant gasoline panic buying in PADD 1 with a quarter of stations in Florida with no gasoline.
  • US gasoline cracks spread have seen support from a larger than expected stocks draw and a surge in implied demand.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 0.6% at 77.04$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 0.6% at 73.71$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.46$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.1$/bbl at 2.93$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 13.64$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 22.56$/bbl
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Crude markets are edging higher today after a decline yesterday as the Middle East risk premium moderated, with a firm US dollar and on comments that there are no changes to the OPEC+ deal under discussion. Brent however rebounded from a low of $75.15/bbl after a larger than expected US crude inventory build.

  • Israel's retaliation against Iran is still awaited as the US continues to discourage Israel from targeting oil facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden spoke on a call yesterday to discuss Israel’s response.
  • Better China related asset sentiment has likely helped oil at the margins today. Today the PBoC opened applications for a swap facility that is aimed at supporting local equity markets. This comes ahead of Saturday's fiscal briefing from the MoF.
  • EIA yesterday showed US crude inventories rose more than expected by 5.8mbbl driven by another bigger than expected drop in refinery utilisation and increase in production back up to record levels of 13.4mbpd.
  • Hurricane Milton which made landfall on Florida's west coast, resulted in significant gasoline panic buying in PADD 1 with a quarter of stations in Florida with no gasoline.
  • US gasoline cracks spread have seen support from a larger than expected stocks draw and a surge in implied demand.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 0.6% at 77.04$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 0.6% at 73.71$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.46$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.1$/bbl at 2.93$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 13.64$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 22.56$/bbl