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OIL: Crude Backwardation Regains Strength as Futures Gradually Recover

OIL

Crude curve backwardation is strengthening again this week as the front month futures are regaining some ground after the initial sharp decline at the start of the week. The curve softened in reaction to the OPEC group decision to return some voluntary cuts back to the market gradually from October.

  • Optimism for US Fed rate cuts in September have been supportive this week while OPEC members have stressed that policy remains flexible and their plans could be adjusted if there looks to be excess supply. OPEC sees robust oil demand growth with the last MOMR showing an increase of 2.2mb/d in 2024, higher than forecasts from other agencies.
  • The Brent prompt time spread has recovered to $0.37/bbl and just below levels seen in mid May after falling to near parity on Jun 4 following the OPEC meeting.
  • The Dec24-Dec25 spread has also regained some ground from $2.32 to $4.03/bbl but remains below the late May high of $4.86/bbl.
    • Brent AUG 24 up 0.5% at 80.25$/bbl
    • WTI JUL 24 up 0.5% at 75.95$/bbl
    • Brent AUG 24-SEP 24 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.38$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.09$/bbl at 3.81$/bbl
    • WTI JUL 24-AUG 24 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.32$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.08$/bbl at 4.02$/bbl

 

 

Source: Bloomberg

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