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OIL: Crude Backwardation Softens Slightly After Recent Time Spread Gains

OIL

Crude time spreads are softening slightly today after reaching the strongest backwardation since late April on Friday. Front month Brent futures are trading between $84.7/bbl and $85.7/bbl so far today and holding onto the gains seen so far this month.

  • The strong backwardation reflects the market sentiment expecting a tighter balance over the summer amid ongoing OPEC production cuts and a potential summer boost to fuel demand despite the disappointing early summer demand data.
  • Brent crude fund net long positioning is also rising again after the decline seen in early June but remains well below the bullish levels seen in April.
  • On Friday, time spreads rose to the highest since late April with the prompt up to $0.94/bbl and Dec24-DCec25 up to $5.22/bbl.
  • Ongoing Middle East tensions and an expected Atlantic hurricane season are added upside price risks although the pace of future growth in key demand regions of US and China remains uncertain.
    • Brent AUG 24 up 0.2% at 85.43$/bbl
    • WTI AUG 24 up 0.3% at 80.98$/bbl
    • Brent AUG 24-SEP 24 down 0.07$/bbl at 0.84$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.12$/bbl at 4.88$/bbl
    • WTI AUG 24-SEP 24 down 0.02$/bbl at 0.75$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.06$/bbl at 5.24$/bbl

 

 

Source: Bloomberg

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