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OIL: Crude Eases Back from Earlier Gains After US CPI Data

OIL

Crude markets are easing back from earlier gains with a stronger US dollar after slightly firmer-than-expected US CPI data.

  • The data removes some Fed rate cut premium from the market, leaving ~28bp of cuts priced for this month’s FOMC and ~106bp of cuts showing through Dec (vs. ~32bp and ~114bp heading into the data).
  • Aug'24 CPI Unrounded % M/M (SA): Headline 0.187%; Core: 0.281% (0.165% prior mth)
  • Unrounded % Y/Y (NSA): Headline 2.531%; Core: 3.197% (3.171% prior mth)
  • Brent front month has recovered some ground since falling to a low of $68.68/bbl yesterday with focus on the impact of Hurricane Francine on the US Gulf Coast and ahead of the updated EIA US inventory data later today.
    • Brent NOV 24 up 1.7% at 70.36$/bbl
    • WTI OCT 24 up 1.9% at 67.02$/bbl
    • Brent NOV 24-DEC 24 up 0.08$/bbl at 0.44$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.14$/bbl at 0.94$/bbl
    • WTI OCT 24-NOV 24 up 0.07$/bbl at 0.68$/bbl
    • WTI DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.27$/bbl at 1.41$/bbl
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