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OIL: Crude Edges Higher but Set for Net Weekly Loss

OIL
BulletEnergy BulletsCommodities

Brent crude is edging higher today but headed for a net weekly decline after a repricing of risk premium earlier in the week with potential attacks against Iran now expected to focus on military targets and would not be targeting oil infrastructure.

  • Prices are supported by a draw in US crude stocks and China data showing tentative signs of improvement as consumption and industrial output figures for September beat forecasts, although apparent oil demand is down 7% y/y in September.     
  • Israel’s Netanyahu says "War Is Still Not Over" following death of Sinwar, the apparent mastermind behind the October 7 attacks. The news likely will increase US pressure on Israel to cease military activities in the Gaza strip, a move so far ignored by the Prime Minister Netanyahu.
  • EIA data yesterday showed US crude inventories fell 2.2mbbl on the week with an unexpected increase in refinery runs and drop in imports to offset an increase in production to another record of 13.5mb/d.
  • Gasoline cracks are near unchanged today following gains earlier this month with EIA showing a US stock draw but big drop in weekly demand. Diesel cracks have regained some recent lost ground with a seasonal increase in implied US demand.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 0.5% at 74.85$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 0.6% at 71.12$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.46$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.02$/bbl at 2.59$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 15.05$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 21.49$/bbl
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Brent crude is edging higher today but headed for a net weekly decline after a repricing of risk premium earlier in the week with potential attacks against Iran now expected to focus on military targets and would not be targeting oil infrastructure.

  • Prices are supported by a draw in US crude stocks and China data showing tentative signs of improvement as consumption and industrial output figures for September beat forecasts, although apparent oil demand is down 7% y/y in September.     
  • Israel’s Netanyahu says "War Is Still Not Over" following death of Sinwar, the apparent mastermind behind the October 7 attacks. The news likely will increase US pressure on Israel to cease military activities in the Gaza strip, a move so far ignored by the Prime Minister Netanyahu.
  • EIA data yesterday showed US crude inventories fell 2.2mbbl on the week with an unexpected increase in refinery runs and drop in imports to offset an increase in production to another record of 13.5mb/d.
  • Gasoline cracks are near unchanged today following gains earlier this month with EIA showing a US stock draw but big drop in weekly demand. Diesel cracks have regained some recent lost ground with a seasonal increase in implied US demand.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 0.5% at 74.85$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 0.6% at 71.12$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.46$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.02$/bbl at 2.59$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 15.05$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 21.49$/bbl