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OIL: Crude Edges Higher but Within Recent Range

OIL
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Crude is edging higher today as concerns over an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war and a slightly weaker US dollar are set against pressure from a small build in US crude inventories.

  • Upside moves are limited by concerns for consumption in China and risk of an oil market surplus next year amid potential rising OPEC and non-OPEC supply.
  • China’s oil product demand is set to decline 2% this year as new EVs and LNG trucks displace 50m tons, CNPC said cited by Bloomberg.
  • US crude inventories yesterday rose to the highest since early August driven by higher Gulf Coast imports although partly offset by a further recover in exports.  A drop in production back to 13.2mb/d was offset by an unexpected fall in refinery runs.
  • In the Middle East efforts remain ongoing to find a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.
  • Gasoline crack spreads have extended their rally which began Nov. 14 although have fallen back with the expiry of the WTI Dec24 contract. Gains are despite a dip in US implied demand and an unexpected US stock build yesterday.
    • Brent JAN 25 up 0.8% at 73.4$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 up 0.9% at 69.38$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 25-FEB 25 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.34$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 up 0.05$/bbl at 0.98$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 14.33$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 25.14$/bbl
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Crude is edging higher today as concerns over an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war and a slightly weaker US dollar are set against pressure from a small build in US crude inventories.

  • Upside moves are limited by concerns for consumption in China and risk of an oil market surplus next year amid potential rising OPEC and non-OPEC supply.
  • China’s oil product demand is set to decline 2% this year as new EVs and LNG trucks displace 50m tons, CNPC said cited by Bloomberg.
  • US crude inventories yesterday rose to the highest since early August driven by higher Gulf Coast imports although partly offset by a further recover in exports.  A drop in production back to 13.2mb/d was offset by an unexpected fall in refinery runs.
  • In the Middle East efforts remain ongoing to find a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.
  • Gasoline crack spreads have extended their rally which began Nov. 14 although have fallen back with the expiry of the WTI Dec24 contract. Gains are despite a dip in US implied demand and an unexpected US stock build yesterday.
    • Brent JAN 25 up 0.8% at 73.4$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 up 0.9% at 69.38$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 25-FEB 25 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.34$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 up 0.05$/bbl at 0.98$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 14.33$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 25.14$/bbl