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OIL: Crude Extends Decline on Lower Risk Premium and Ongoing Surplus Concern

OIL
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Crude extends the pull back after Russian Deputy PM Novak said no changes to the OPEC+ deal is currently being discussed, Reuters said. It is too early to assess if the global oil market can digest additional OPEC+ barrels currently planned in December, he added.

  • The risk of a market surplus next year due to soft demand and rising non-OPEC supply continue to weigh on oil markets while there is no physical disruption to Middle East supplies.
  • Crude was already down on the day after earlier reports from a Times of Israel reporter suggesting that Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack "will likely focus on military targets”, although the reporter also noted that “could still change."
  • Initial Brent support is at the 20-day EMA of $74.89/bbl and $$71.41/bbl for WTI.
    • Brent DEC 24 down 2% at 75.66$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 2% at 72.11$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.38$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.32$/bbl at 2.32$/bbl
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Crude extends the pull back after Russian Deputy PM Novak said no changes to the OPEC+ deal is currently being discussed, Reuters said. It is too early to assess if the global oil market can digest additional OPEC+ barrels currently planned in December, he added.

  • The risk of a market surplus next year due to soft demand and rising non-OPEC supply continue to weigh on oil markets while there is no physical disruption to Middle East supplies.
  • Crude was already down on the day after earlier reports from a Times of Israel reporter suggesting that Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack "will likely focus on military targets”, although the reporter also noted that “could still change."
  • Initial Brent support is at the 20-day EMA of $74.89/bbl and $$71.41/bbl for WTI.
    • Brent DEC 24 down 2% at 75.66$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 down 2% at 72.11$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.38$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.32$/bbl at 2.32$/bbl