OIL: Crude Holding Steady Ahead of US Fed and Industry Reports This Week

Crude holds steady today as the market continues to assess the impact of OPEC cut extension into Q3 and return of some supply from Q4. Focus this week is also likely on future demand expectations and the Fed meeting, looking for indications of future interest rate policy amid persistently high inflation.

• Stronger US payrolls data added downside pressure to prices late last week after the recovery from the sharp drop in futures prices at the start of the week.
  • Brent AUG 24 up 0.3% at 79.83$/bbl
  • WTI JUL 24 up 0.2% at 75.7$/bbl
  • Gasoil JUN 24 up 0.8% at 728$/mt
  • Brent AUG 24-SEP 24 down 0.02$/bbl at 0.26$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.03$/bbl at 3.42$/bbl
• A tighter market due to OPEC cuts in Q3 and potential lower stocks due to summer holiday fuel demand is providing some support. Global oil product inventories including gasoline saw an unusual increase in May adding a further bearish signal for the wider oil complex, according to FGE.
• Goldman Sachs expected Brent to recover to $86/bbl in Q3, as the market gets pushed into deficit.
• Talks with Kurdistan region officials and representatives of international companies have progressed and a deal to resume oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline could be expected in the coming days, said Iraq's Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani.
• Net long Brent crude positioning has fallen to the least bullish since Sep 2014. The crude puts skew is holding steady after narrowing last week following the initial drop in reaction to the OPEC meeting.
• Monthly industry reports from OPEC, EIA and IEA will also be in focus this week.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 24.9$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 23.84$/bbl