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OIL: Crude Holding Within $1.5/bbl Range Ahead of EIA Stocks Data

OIL

Crude markets are recovering ground from a decline seen yesterday despite an unexpected 0.9mbbl build in US crude inventories according to the API data last night. EIA data released later today is expected to show a 2.4mbbl draw according to a Bloomberg survey.

  • Front month Brent remains relatively unchanged since June 19 and trading between the range $84.71/bbl to 86.24$/bbl. Prices are supported by market sentiment expecting a tighter balance over the summer due to OPEC+ production cuts and stronger seasonal demand in Q3 while geopolitical risks persist.
  • Oil loadings from Russia’s western ports are expected to fall 23% m/m in July to 1.5mbpd, according to Reuters sources.
    • Brent AUG 24 up 0.5% at 85.46$/bbl
    • WTI AUG 24 up 0.6% at 81.32$/bbl
    • Brent AUG 24-SEP 24 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.78$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.11$/bbl at 4.86$/bbl
  • Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are edging higher again today, likely supported by indications of improving US demand. US retail gasoline demand saw a rise of 0.8% for the week ending June 22 to 8.875mb/d, according to GasBuddy.
  • Planned oil product exports from refiners and suppliers in China are set to fall to 3.19m tons in July from 3.72m tons in June, according to OilChem sources, cited by Bloomberg.
    • US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 23.85$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 25.5$/bbl

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