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OIL: Crude Holds Onto Gains As US$ Softens

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Oil prices are little changed during APAC trading today holding onto Monday’s sharp gains driven by increased geopolitical threats to global supply. Brent is 0.2% higher at $73.46/bbl but has moved in a narrow range. WTI is up 0.2% to $69.32, close to the intraday high. The USD index is down 0.1% after falling 0.4% yesterday, which has provided significant support for dollar-denominated crude.

  • Reuters reported that a US ceasefire agreement has been agreed by Hezbollah/Lebanon, but the US has warned that negotiations continue. 
  • Supply/demand fundamentals remain in focus with a market surplus forecast for next year and futures signalling expectations for ample supply. The IEA is projecting a surplus of over 1mbd driven by soft China demand. US industry-based inventory data are released later today. Stock builds have been limited in the US in recent months.
  • Later the Fed’s Schmid speaks on the economic outlook. Also the ECB’s Elderson and BoE’s Bailey talk. US October housing starts/permits and Canadian October CPI print. 
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Oil prices are little changed during APAC trading today holding onto Monday’s sharp gains driven by increased geopolitical threats to global supply. Brent is 0.2% higher at $73.46/bbl but has moved in a narrow range. WTI is up 0.2% to $69.32, close to the intraday high. The USD index is down 0.1% after falling 0.4% yesterday, which has provided significant support for dollar-denominated crude.

  • Reuters reported that a US ceasefire agreement has been agreed by Hezbollah/Lebanon, but the US has warned that negotiations continue. 
  • Supply/demand fundamentals remain in focus with a market surplus forecast for next year and futures signalling expectations for ample supply. The IEA is projecting a surplus of over 1mbd driven by soft China demand. US industry-based inventory data are released later today. Stock builds have been limited in the US in recent months.
  • Later the Fed’s Schmid speaks on the economic outlook. Also the ECB’s Elderson and BoE’s Bailey talk. US October housing starts/permits and Canadian October CPI print.