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OIL: Crude Holds Onto Monday’s Losses, Supply/Demand Trends In Focus

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After falling over 5% on Monday in response to less inflammatory comments from Israel and Iran following Israel’s strikes on military targets, oil prices are moderately higher in APAC trading thus holding onto most of yesterday’s losses. WTI is off its intraday high of $68.08/bbl though to be up 0.3% to $67.56, close to the intraday low. Brent is 0.2% higher at $71.56/bbl, also near today’s trough. The USD index is little changed.

  • Not only have the risks associated with the Iran/Israel conflict dissipated, but a Gaza ceasefire may be closer too, even if only a temporary one, with Israel voicing its willingness. 
  • With geopolitical risks in the background for now, the focus has returned to supply/demand fundamentals, especially as OPEC is planning to increase production from December. This puts renewed focus on US and China demand. Today industry-based US crude/product inventory data is released and oil markets will be watching Friday’s US payroll and ISM data closely too.
  • Later US September trade, inventories, JOLT job openings, October consumer & Dallas Fed services confidence and August house prices print, as well as November German consumer confidence and UK September credit data. BoC’s Macklem and Rogers speak.

 

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After falling over 5% on Monday in response to less inflammatory comments from Israel and Iran following Israel’s strikes on military targets, oil prices are moderately higher in APAC trading thus holding onto most of yesterday’s losses. WTI is off its intraday high of $68.08/bbl though to be up 0.3% to $67.56, close to the intraday low. Brent is 0.2% higher at $71.56/bbl, also near today’s trough. The USD index is little changed.

  • Not only have the risks associated with the Iran/Israel conflict dissipated, but a Gaza ceasefire may be closer too, even if only a temporary one, with Israel voicing its willingness. 
  • With geopolitical risks in the background for now, the focus has returned to supply/demand fundamentals, especially as OPEC is planning to increase production from December. This puts renewed focus on US and China demand. Today industry-based US crude/product inventory data is released and oil markets will be watching Friday’s US payroll and ISM data closely too.
  • Later US September trade, inventories, JOLT job openings, October consumer & Dallas Fed services confidence and August house prices print, as well as November German consumer confidence and UK September credit data. BoC’s Macklem and Rogers speak.