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MNI: FRANCE NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 43.1 (FLASH 43.2); OCT 44.5

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OIL: Crude Moderately Higher On Better China PMI

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After finishing last week and month down, oil prices have started today slightly higher but still in a narrow range. Brent is up 0.5% to $72.23/bbl and WTI +0.5% to $68.37, both close to their intraday highs despite a stronger US dollar (USD BBDXY +0.4%). The modest rise was supported by China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for November rising over one point to 51.5. 

  • OPEC+ delayed its meeting from last weekend to December 5 to enable time to frame its output strategy. It has already pushed out planned gradual output increases twice to the end of this year but they are widely expected to be postponed again in this week’s statement. It’s unclear if the group can agree on a way forward, as it also doesn’t want to lose market share and non-OPEC production is expected to rise in 2025.
  • Developments in the Middle East have driven oil prices in both directions for over a year now. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah appears to be holding, but rebels have taken Aleppo in Syria and Iran has said it will support the Syrian government to retake it. Risks to Iran’s oil supply have remained the market’s main concern from conflict in the region.
  • Later the Fed’s Waller and Williams speak and ECB President Lagarde appears. Euro area October unemployment rate, European/Canadian manufacturing November PMIs and US manufacturing ISM/PMI print. 
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After finishing last week and month down, oil prices have started today slightly higher but still in a narrow range. Brent is up 0.5% to $72.23/bbl and WTI +0.5% to $68.37, both close to their intraday highs despite a stronger US dollar (USD BBDXY +0.4%). The modest rise was supported by China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for November rising over one point to 51.5. 

  • OPEC+ delayed its meeting from last weekend to December 5 to enable time to frame its output strategy. It has already pushed out planned gradual output increases twice to the end of this year but they are widely expected to be postponed again in this week’s statement. It’s unclear if the group can agree on a way forward, as it also doesn’t want to lose market share and non-OPEC production is expected to rise in 2025.
  • Developments in the Middle East have driven oil prices in both directions for over a year now. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah appears to be holding, but rebels have taken Aleppo in Syria and Iran has said it will support the Syrian government to retake it. Risks to Iran’s oil supply have remained the market’s main concern from conflict in the region.
  • Later the Fed’s Waller and Williams speak and ECB President Lagarde appears. Euro area October unemployment rate, European/Canadian manufacturing November PMIs and US manufacturing ISM/PMI print.