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OIL: Crude Set for Net Weekly Loss Amid Thin Holiday Trading

OIL
BulletEnergy BulletsCommodities

Brent crude futures are on track for a net weekly decline of almost 3% but are holding between about $72.3/bbl and $73.5/bbl since Nov. 27 amid thin trading due to the US holiday.

  • Crude found some support yesterday after a Reuters report that OPEC+ is discussing output return delays for Q1 2025. It would mark the third delay by the group but represent a longer delay than the prior extensions. The online ministers meeting was delayed until Dec. 5.
  • Middle East risk premium has eased although headlines suggesting that the recently agreed ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has already been violated had also provided some price support.
  • Crude implied volatility remains fairly low with front month futures bouncing within a $5/bbl range since mid October. A soft demand outlook for China and growing non-OPEC supply continues to weigh on prices while the impact of the Trump administration on the oil supply from the US and Iran is uncertain.
  • Saudi Aramco may cut the Arab Light OSP to Asia by $0.7/bbl in January, according to a Bloomberg survey.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks edged higher yesterday but are set for a net weekly loss amid falling US diesel demand, but a travel demand boost is expected from the Thanksgiving holiday.
    • Brent FEB 25 down 0.6% at 72.34$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 down 0.1% at 68.66$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 25-MAR 25 unchanged at 0.37$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 1.03$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 12.49$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 24.17$/bbl
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Brent crude futures are on track for a net weekly decline of almost 3% but are holding between about $72.3/bbl and $73.5/bbl since Nov. 27 amid thin trading due to the US holiday.

  • Crude found some support yesterday after a Reuters report that OPEC+ is discussing output return delays for Q1 2025. It would mark the third delay by the group but represent a longer delay than the prior extensions. The online ministers meeting was delayed until Dec. 5.
  • Middle East risk premium has eased although headlines suggesting that the recently agreed ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has already been violated had also provided some price support.
  • Crude implied volatility remains fairly low with front month futures bouncing within a $5/bbl range since mid October. A soft demand outlook for China and growing non-OPEC supply continues to weigh on prices while the impact of the Trump administration on the oil supply from the US and Iran is uncertain.
  • Saudi Aramco may cut the Arab Light OSP to Asia by $0.7/bbl in January, according to a Bloomberg survey.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks edged higher yesterday but are set for a net weekly loss amid falling US diesel demand, but a travel demand boost is expected from the Thanksgiving holiday.
    • Brent FEB 25 down 0.6% at 72.34$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 down 0.1% at 68.66$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 25-MAR 25 unchanged at 0.37$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 1.03$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 12.49$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 24.17$/bbl