OIL: Crude Set for Small Weekly Gain as Beaish Trend Stalls

Crude is headed for a small net weekly gain, recovering from a Brent low of $68.68/bbl, as the bearish trend in place since Aug 26 has stalled.  Prices have been supported by output disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Francine passes and with risk on sentiment ahead of expected Fed rate cuts. 

• The IEA forecasts this year's global demand to grow by 903kbpd from 970kbpd in its prior report – the second downward revision in 2 months. Rapidly slowing Chinese consumption is the key driver of lower global oil demand growth.
• Hurricane Francine appears to be not as significant event as first thought but still has interrupted supply and likely disrupted 1.5mbbl of Gulf of Mexico production, according to UBS estimates, cited by Reuters. About 730mb/d or 42% of crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were shut-in on Thursday, the U.S. offshore energy regulator said.
• Diesel and gasoline crack spreads remain weak with the US diesel crack yesterday falling to a new recent low of $19.65/bbl. EIA showed declines in both gasoline and distillate demand again this week while oil refineries in Louisiana in the path of Hurricane Francine began recovering, Reuters sources said.
• Multiple facilities were however operating at reduced rates late yesterday, according to EIA cited by Bloomberg.
  • Brent NOV 24 up 0.5% at 72.34$/bbl
  • WTI OCT 24 up 0.6% at 69.35$/bbl
  • Brent NOV 24-DEC 24 up 0.06$/bbl at 0.6$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.18$/bbl at 1.45$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 12.13$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 19.93$/bbl