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OIL: Crude Set for Weekly Decline on Gaza Talks Continue

OIL

Crude is holding steady today but set for a net weekly decline with global demand concerns and easing Middle East risk premium amid renewed Gaza ceasefire talks set against growing speculation of a delay to OPEC+ cut unwinding and falling US inventories.

  • US and Israeli negotiators started new talks in Cairo on Thursday and will continue into the weekend to negotiate with Hamas in an attempt to find common ground.
  • Softness in manufacturing and jobs data suggest a slowing US economy to add to suggestions of a struggling economy in China and slowing oil demand from refiners.
  • A US Fed rate cut is widely expected at the September meeting as the market looks for further signals from the Jackson Hole Symposium and the address from Fed Chair Powell.
  • OPEC+ currently still plans to return voluntary production cuts from October onwards but this could be impacted by the bearish market sentiment and risk of a market surplus. OPEC has received updated compensation plans from Iraq and Kazakhstan for their overproduction in the first seven months of this year, OPEC said.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks held relatively stable yesterday amid the recent downward trend with pressure from tepid summer demand and healthy supply.
    • Brent OCT 24 up 0.1% at 77.31$/bbl
    • WTI OCT 24 up 0.1% at 73.1$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent down 0.02$/bbl at -4.21$/bbl
    • Brent OCT 24-NOV 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.69$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.02$/bbl at 3.07$/bbl
    • US 321 crack up 0.2$/bbl at 17.39$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 22.91$/bbl
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