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OIL: Crude Set for Weekly Gain Amid Tightening Balance

OIL

Crude markets are relatively unchanged today but heading for another net weekly gain driven by signs of improving demand and a decline in US fuel stocks.

  • EIA data yesterday showed US crude stocks drew in line with expectation with a correction of the large swings in imports and exports seen last week while refinery utilisation saw an unexpected decline back to 93.5%. Gasoline and distillates showed unexpected stocks draws with an increase in the weekly implied fuel demand.
  • Ongoing Middle East tensions and an expected Atlantic hurricane season are added upside price risks although higher for longer US Fed rates could weigh on oil demand.
  • At least two Russian refineries were targeted overnight amid the latest drone attacks. Russian Defence Ministry said 70 drones were intercepted over Crimea and the Black Sea and 43 over Krasnodar.
    • Brent AUG 24 down 0.1% at 85.66$/bbl
    • WTI AUG 24 down 0% at 81.27$/bbl
    • Brent AUG 24-SEP 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.87$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 5.09$/bbl
  • Crude curve backwardation also continues to strengthen with the prompt Brent spread up to the highest since late April suggesting the tightening balance.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks were net lower yesterday amid ongoing concern for a tepid start to summer driving season although AAA forecast record travel over the July 4 holiday period which could help boost fuel demand.
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 23.04$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 25.45$/bbl
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