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OIL: Crude Steady Amid Offsetting Supply Risks

OIL
BulletEnergy BulletsCommodities

Crude holds steady within the $70.78/bbl to $72.79/bbl range in recent days with the prospect of returning barrels from Libya and more OPEC+ supply from December set against Middle East risks, China stimulus and Kazakhstan maintenance.

  • Escalating conflict in the Middle East and signs of an Israeli ground invasion into Lebanon is supportive although the upside impact to prices remains limited with no direct impact for oil flows yet.
  • China has announced stimulus measures in the last week, but uncertainty remains as to the impact on actual oil demand amid soft manufacturing data.
  • Libyan oil fields that were halted or curtailed by an eastern government ban this month are expected to start restoring output on Tuesday according to a handful of reports adding physical barrels back on the market.
  • The US has bought 6mbbls of crude for the SPR for delivery in in Feb - May 2025 at an average price below target at $68.56/bbl.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks are softer today, but diesel still hold a net gain since mid September amid refinery outages and maintenance although weak demand still limits upside.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 0% at 71.73$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 0.1% at 68.22$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.26$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.03$/bbl at 1.03$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 12.75$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 22.09$/bbl
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Crude holds steady within the $70.78/bbl to $72.79/bbl range in recent days with the prospect of returning barrels from Libya and more OPEC+ supply from December set against Middle East risks, China stimulus and Kazakhstan maintenance.

  • Escalating conflict in the Middle East and signs of an Israeli ground invasion into Lebanon is supportive although the upside impact to prices remains limited with no direct impact for oil flows yet.
  • China has announced stimulus measures in the last week, but uncertainty remains as to the impact on actual oil demand amid soft manufacturing data.
  • Libyan oil fields that were halted or curtailed by an eastern government ban this month are expected to start restoring output on Tuesday according to a handful of reports adding physical barrels back on the market.
  • The US has bought 6mbbls of crude for the SPR for delivery in in Feb - May 2025 at an average price below target at $68.56/bbl.
  • Diesel and gasoline cracks are softer today, but diesel still hold a net gain since mid September amid refinery outages and maintenance although weak demand still limits upside.
    • Brent DEC 24 up 0% at 71.73$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 24 up 0.1% at 68.22$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-JAN 25 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.26$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.03$/bbl at 1.03$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 12.75$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 22.09$/bbl