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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY12.2 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

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MNI JAPAN SEPT HOUSEHOLD SPENDING -1.1% Y/Y; AUG -1.9%

MNI: US SEP CONSUMER CREDIT +$6.0B

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FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

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MNI Asia Pac Weekly Macro Wrap:

A weekly wrap of some of the key Asia Pac macro events and themes
Central Bank NewsHomepageFederal ReserveAPACJapanAustraliaGlobalStoryChinaMarketsRegion

MNI (SYDNEY) - Executive Summary:

  • JAPAN 
    Speculation continues around the timing of the next BoJ move. This week’s data on labor incomes and household spending didn’t suggest near term urgency to hike rates further. Yen weakened in the aftermath of the US election, but follow through has been limited, while rhetoric around FX weakness picked up. 
     
  • AUSTRALIA 
    The RBA left rates rates unchanged at 4.35% but it was another hawkish hold with the Board remaining “vigilant to upside risks to inflation” and not ruling “anything in or out”. Forecasts were little changed but growth was revised lower and trimmed mean inflation is now expected to reach the top of the band by Q2 2025 rather than Q4, but the return to target has to be “sustainable”.
     
  • NEW ZEALAND
    Q3 jobs data showed that both labour demand and supply are easing. Employment contracted signalling that job shedding is taking place but the unemployment rate didn’t rise as much as expected due to a drop in the participation rate. The weakness is likely enough for the RBNZ to cut rates another 50bp at its November 27 meeting.
     
  • SHORT TERM RATES 
    $-Bloc markets are little changed since the start of the week apart from NZ. 
     
  • CHINA 
    China data outcomes remain positive relative to expectations. Markets await more stimulus details following the recent NPC meeting. CNH lost ground post the US election, but depreciation pressures have proven limited so far. 
     
  • SOUTH KOREA 
    CPI pressures continue to track lower. In light recent growth softness this could see the BoK cut rates again at the end November meeting. 
     
  • ASIA 
    Thai CPI inflation remained below the bottom of the central bank’s 1-3% target band in October. Core printed in line with expectations at 0.8% y/y, unchanged from September, while headline was slightly lower than forecast at 0.8% y/y up from 0.6%. It is expected to return to the band in November due to oil prices.
  • Q3 GDP in Indonesia and the Philippines was moderately weaker than expected but other indicators such as PMIs have deteriorated. Both central banks have begun to ease but further moves before year end aren’t a given.
     
  • ASIA EQUITY FLOWS 
    Uncertainty as to the outcome of the US Election drove volatility in the region and a flight to USD resulted in consistent and strong outflows from Asia equities over the week.


PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: weekly macro round up (November 8 2024) .pdf

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MNI (SYDNEY) - Executive Summary:

  • JAPAN 
    Speculation continues around the timing of the next BoJ move. This week’s data on labor incomes and household spending didn’t suggest near term urgency to hike rates further. Yen weakened in the aftermath of the US election, but follow through has been limited, while rhetoric around FX weakness picked up. 
     
  • AUSTRALIA 
    The RBA left rates rates unchanged at 4.35% but it was another hawkish hold with the Board remaining “vigilant to upside risks to inflation” and not ruling “anything in or out”. Forecasts were little changed but growth was revised lower and trimmed mean inflation is now expected to reach the top of the band by Q2 2025 rather than Q4, but the return to target has to be “sustainable”.
     
  • NEW ZEALAND
    Q3 jobs data showed that both labour demand and supply are easing. Employment contracted signalling that job shedding is taking place but the unemployment rate didn’t rise as much as expected due to a drop in the participation rate. The weakness is likely enough for the RBNZ to cut rates another 50bp at its November 27 meeting.
     
  • SHORT TERM RATES 
    $-Bloc markets are little changed since the start of the week apart from NZ. 
     
  • CHINA 
    China data outcomes remain positive relative to expectations. Markets await more stimulus details following the recent NPC meeting. CNH lost ground post the US election, but depreciation pressures have proven limited so far. 
     
  • SOUTH KOREA 
    CPI pressures continue to track lower. In light recent growth softness this could see the BoK cut rates again at the end November meeting. 
     
  • ASIA 
    Thai CPI inflation remained below the bottom of the central bank’s 1-3% target band in October. Core printed in line with expectations at 0.8% y/y, unchanged from September, while headline was slightly lower than forecast at 0.8% y/y up from 0.6%. It is expected to return to the band in November due to oil prices.
  • Q3 GDP in Indonesia and the Philippines was moderately weaker than expected but other indicators such as PMIs have deteriorated. Both central banks have begun to ease but further moves before year end aren’t a given.
     
  • ASIA EQUITY FLOWS 
    Uncertainty as to the outcome of the US Election drove volatility in the region and a flight to USD resulted in consistent and strong outflows from Asia equities over the week.


PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: weekly macro round up (November 8 2024) .pdf