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OIL: Crude Steady with Middle East Focus Ahead of EIA Report

OIL

Crude front month is relatively stable after regaining some ground yesterday amid a rise in Saudi OSPs and increased geopolitical risk premium. Oil prices are off their intraday highs with upside limited by a stronger US dollar but geopolitics are the focus of energy markets as Israel has begun operations in Rafah while ceasefire talks continue.

  • Negotiations on a Gaza truce will continue in Egypt after Hamas responded. A “softened” version of the US/Egyptian brokered proposal has been agreed to by Hamas, according to Reuters. This amended offer has been unanimously rejected by Israel’s war cabinet but it will send negotiators back to Egypt.
    • Brent JUL 24 up 0.1% at 83.44$/bbl
    • WTI JUN 24 up 0.1% at 78.58$/bbl
    • Gasoil MAY 24 down 0.1% at 750$/mt
    • WTI-Brent down 0.02$/bbl at -5.19$/bbl
  • US crude inventories will again be closely monitored with the API data released today and EIA tomorrow after a strong build last week. Inventories could have fallen 1.2mbbl in the week to May 3, according to a preliminary Reuters poll.
  • The EIA also releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook today as the market looks for indications of the future pace of US supply and outlook for demand growth.
    • Brent JUL 24-AUG 24 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.5$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.12$/bbl at 4.4$/bbl
  • Oil product crack spreads regained some losses yesterday with gasoline demand edging higher by 0.1% last week according to GasBuddy.
  • China has issued a second fuel export quota of 14m tons according to OilChem and JLC.
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 29.9$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 24.84$/bbl
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