OIL: Crude Ticks Higher After Rally on EIA Crude Stock Draw Yesterday

Crude edges higher with support from the small draw and a higher demand shown in the US weekly inventory data yesterday. Focus has turned to fundamentals amid future demand uncertainty and growing expectation of an OPEC+ output cut extension into H2 while Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks are ongoing.

• Weekly EIA petroleum data showed a crude stocks draw roughly in line with expectation with an increase in refinery runs and recovery in exports after the big fall last week while also showing a slight recovery in fuel demand.
• China’s April trade data showed a monthly drop in crude imports due to the heaviest seasonal refinery maintenance program in three years according to OilChem. outages. Demand is being impacted by tight refining margins, increased EV usage and natural gas consumption. Product exports fell 24% ahead of new quotas announced earlier this week.
• The US has raised the price it’s willing to pay to refill the strategic petroleum reserves to as much as $79.99/bbl compared to a previous indication of no more than $79/bbl and close to market prices.
  • Brent JUL 24 up 0.3% at 83.87$/bbl
  • WTI JUN 24 up 0.5% at 79.37$/bbl
  • Brent JUL 24-AUG 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.6$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 up 0.1$/bbl at 4.71$/bbl
• Gasoline cracks furthered losses yesterday after a small, unexpected build in stocks while four-week implied demand remains below all recent years except despite edging higher on the week.
  • Gasoil MAY 24 up 0.6% at 760.75$/mt
  • US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 27.17$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 25.06$/bbl