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Oil Demand Growth in India to Surpass China From 2026
India could eclipse China as the most important driver of global oil demand growth due to a rising population and slower transition from traditional gasoline and diesel transport to electric vehicles.
- Refiner China National Petroleum Corp. recently suggested a peak to Chinese oil consumption around 2030. Kpler forecasts India’s growth will surpass China from 2026 with a later peak of oil demand in 2036.
- China’s share of total emerging market oil demand growth will slip from almost 50% to 15% over the next decade while India’s share will double to 24% according to Fitch Solutions. India has green energy ambitions but is lagging other major nations so a reliance on fossil fuels is likely to be longer.
- India has already become a major consumer of Russian crude over the last year and has increased global shipments of refined products to other regions such as Europe and the US.
- China’s transition to electric vehicles has been fast with EV sales in China nearly doubling to 6.1m units in 2022 and EV sales globally already displacing over 1.4mbpd of oil use.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.