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OIL: EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Small Draws and Lower Refinery Runs Expected

OIL
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EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30ET (15:30BST) today.

  • Crude inventories are expected to draw by 1.43mbbls, gasoline to draw 0.12mbbl and distillates to draw 1.22mbbl for the week to Sept. 20, a Bloomberg survey shows. Cushing stocks are near tank bottom levels and down 40% since late May and near a decade seasonal low in 2018. Refinery ulitsation fell last week driven by outages on the Gulf Coast due to Hurricane Francine but the decline was less than expected while utilisation is expected to fall 0.24% this week. US refiners are set for the lightest autumn refinery maintenance season in three years, with 529kb/d of capacity offline, according to IIR and about half the offline capacity from last year. The adjustment factor jumped last week after seeing more stability since methodology changed earlier this year.
  • Gasoline stocks showed a smaller build than expected last week with an increase in gasoline production offsetting a recovery in weekly implied demand. Four week implied gasoline demand followed the seasonal end of summer trend lower and could fall further this week. U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a fall of 2.2% for the week ending September 21, modelled at 8.65 mb/d, according to GasBuddy. OPIS sees demand around 8.5m b/d or less, compared to the 2016-2019 average for this period of above 9m b/d.
  • Distillates stocks also built last week with a drop in distillates production and higher weekly demand offset by a drop in exports. Four week average implied distillate demand edged back above the previous five year average with gains faster than the seasonal normal trend. European diesel imports from the US are expected to dip in September from the highest in data back to 2017 at just under 500kb/d in August supported by more profitable arbitrage opportunities to Europe, Kpler said.
  • The API data yesterday showed a crude draw of 4.34mbbl, a Cushing draw of 0.026mbbl, gasoline draw of 3.44mbbl and distillates draw of 1.12mbbl.
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EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30ET (15:30BST) today.

  • Crude inventories are expected to draw by 1.43mbbls, gasoline to draw 0.12mbbl and distillates to draw 1.22mbbl for the week to Sept. 20, a Bloomberg survey shows. Cushing stocks are near tank bottom levels and down 40% since late May and near a decade seasonal low in 2018. Refinery ulitsation fell last week driven by outages on the Gulf Coast due to Hurricane Francine but the decline was less than expected while utilisation is expected to fall 0.24% this week. US refiners are set for the lightest autumn refinery maintenance season in three years, with 529kb/d of capacity offline, according to IIR and about half the offline capacity from last year. The adjustment factor jumped last week after seeing more stability since methodology changed earlier this year.
  • Gasoline stocks showed a smaller build than expected last week with an increase in gasoline production offsetting a recovery in weekly implied demand. Four week implied gasoline demand followed the seasonal end of summer trend lower and could fall further this week. U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a fall of 2.2% for the week ending September 21, modelled at 8.65 mb/d, according to GasBuddy. OPIS sees demand around 8.5m b/d or less, compared to the 2016-2019 average for this period of above 9m b/d.
  • Distillates stocks also built last week with a drop in distillates production and higher weekly demand offset by a drop in exports. Four week average implied distillate demand edged back above the previous five year average with gains faster than the seasonal normal trend. European diesel imports from the US are expected to dip in September from the highest in data back to 2017 at just under 500kb/d in August supported by more profitable arbitrage opportunities to Europe, Kpler said.
  • The API data yesterday showed a crude draw of 4.34mbbl, a Cushing draw of 0.026mbbl, gasoline draw of 3.44mbbl and distillates draw of 1.12mbbl.