Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Falls

Crude reversed earlier gains to trade lower at US close. Bearish economic data and a higher-than-expected forecast from the EIA for US crude output in 2024 added downside.

• WTI APR 24 down 0.1% at 77.83$/bbl
• Firmer than expected CPI initially unwinds some of the Fed rate cut premium, before a look at unrounded numbers and slower supercore M/M inflation tempers/reverses the move.
• OPEC raised oil output 200,000 BPD to 26.6 mln bpd in February, OPEC+ overshot production target by 200,000 BPD
• Global liquid fuels consumption is forecast to be102.43m b/d in 2024, according to the EIA’s March short term energy outlook, revised up 0.01m b/d from February. The EIA now forecasts a supply deficit of 0.26m b/d in 2024 and a surplus of 0.36m b/d in 2025.
• Lukoil’s 340kbpd Norsi refinery shut the main CDU (AVT-6) following several Ukrainian drone and missile attacks overnight, meaning at least half of the refinery’s production is halted, sources told Reuters.
• Russia’s seaborne crude exports surged by 590kb/d to 3.7mb/d and the highest level for the year so far in the week to March 10 according to Bloomberg ship tracking.
• Heavy sour Canadian crude in Hardisty, Alberta has cut its discount to WTI amid demand to fill the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline and the restart of the Whiting refinery.
• Venezuelan crude oil exports rose by 125kbpd on the month to 660kbpd in February, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase, Kpler data showed.
• The UK Navy’s report of an incident 600nm east of Mogadishu, Somalia involved piracy, according to the UKMTO.