Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Rangebound on Week

WTI remains below the lows from yesterday as close approaches, keeping it roughly flat week-on-week.

• WTI SEP 24 down 1.7% at 76.87$/bbl
• US oil rig count: 483 (-2) – Baker Hughes
• MIDEAST: Biden-'We're Closer To Deal'; Hamas: We Won't Accept 'New Conditions':
• Murban crude prices are the highest this month with October up to a premium of $1.41/bbl as Asian refiners buy Middle East light crude oil cargoes, according to Reuters sources.
• Black Sea CPC Blend oil exports via the CPC pipeline system in September are expected similar to August at 1.3mbpd, Reuters said.
• A strike at Brazil’s environmental agency Ibama – the body approving oil licenses – is still cutting the country’s output by 120k b/d: IBP
• Brazil may raise oil production by 76% to 5.3m b/d by 2030, but will be followed by a small drop: Ministry of Mines and Energy
• Commerzbank revises the oil price forecast downwards on weak China demand with Brent at $85/bbl and WTI at $80/bbl by year end.
• OPEC+ has succeeded in fine tuning its supply to support prices, but planned cut unwinding could create downward pressure: Platts
• Market conditions may pressure OPEC+ into delaying its unwinding, but potentially at the cost of the bloc’s unity: Platts
• There is sufficient oil in the market and spare capacity that geopolitical crises are not causing additional price volatility, Platts said in its Oil Market Podcast.
• An east-west split is starting to emerge in crude markets, with heavy sour barrels in the East, and light sweet grades flowing west, Platts said.
• An excess of supertankers in the Middle East compared with crude cargoes for the next 30 days narrowed to 14%, the smallest since Feb. 2023, Bloomberg said.