Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Rises

WTI is headed for close trading higher, supported by concerns of Middle East conflict escalation, stronger U.S. services sector data, and a cut in production at Libya's Sharara oilfield.

• WTI SEP 24 up 0.8% at 73.54$/bbl
• Jim Sciutto at CNN posts on X: "US beginning to see some Iranian preparations for a potential military response to Israel, according to two US officials familiar with the intelligence.
• The EIA has kept its forecast for global oil demand in 2024 stable at 102.9m b/d in its August Short Term Energy Outlook.
• Survey estimates for EIA crude inventory change in week to Aug. 2: -0.5m bbl (WSJ), -0.7m bbl (Reuters), -1.48m bbl (Bloomberg)
• Libya’s NOC said it was reducing production from the ~300,000 bpd Sharara field.
• Saudi Aramco has maintained its medium and long-term demand forecasts and sees 2024 demand growth at 1.6m-2m b/d.
• US crude exports, including condensates derived from natgas, rose to 4.23mb/d in June, according to Bloomberg calculations from the US census data bureau.
• The startup of the Trans Mountain pipeline has failed to narrow Canadian Crude differentials to WTI, despite previous expectations, Reuters said.
• Russian seaborne crude exports plummeted to a 12-month low in July, Platts said.
• Kazakhstan’s biggest producer, TCO said its output slipped 3.4% in H1 2024 y/y.
• Nigeria’s oil output has risen to around 1.6m-1.7m b/d after the government tightened security measures to reduce crude theft: Reuters.
• Brent crude prices are likely to stay above $75/bbl as the oil market will withstand macro recessionary fears, according to a Goldman Sachs said.
• Oil markets are suffering from broader macro concerns but also a more specific backdrop of lacklustre Asian demand according to RBC’s Helima Croft.