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Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Rises on Softer USD

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WTI is approaching US close trading higher on the day, boosted by a fall in the US dollar. The greenback’s weakening comes on the back of softer US PMI data.

  • WTI JUN 24 up 1.8% at 83.38$/bbl
  • The US extended sanctions on Iran’s oil sector to include foreign ports, vessels and refineries that knowingly process or ship Iranian crude; analysts don’t expect the new measures to have a material impact on Iran’s crude exports.
  • Limited impact is expected on Iran’s oil exports from new US legislation: FGE.
  • The US is not incentivised to enforce sanctions, especially in an election year: Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen.
  • Approved US aid for Ukraine may help to stop its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure: RBC’s Helima Croft.
  • US crude oil inventories likely rose for a fifth straight week: WSJ survey.
  • Russia expects its crude oil supplies will grow over the next three years after being stable in 2024, according to Bloomberg.
  • Russia’s seaborne crude exports maintained a multi-month high in the four weeks to April 21, according to Bloomberg.
  • Asia has lost 920kbd of medium/heavy sour barrels in Q1 2024 y/y with more volumes at risk according to Vortexa.
  • Exports of the four main Nigerian crude grades are 620.8k b/d for June.
  • The oil market is going through a consolidation period but is genuinely tight and the chances of oil prices rising above $100/bbl are “extraordinarily high:” analyst Jeff Currie.
  • An oil price rise above $100/bbl “would require a geopolitical event,” said Eric Robertsen at Standard Chartered but prices in the mid- to low-$90/bbl is “very plausible.”
  • Brent price forecasts of $90/bbl in Q2, $92/bbl in Q3 and $87/bbl in Q4 are driven by soft near-term fundamentals and geopolitical risks: BNP Paribas.
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WTI is approaching US close trading higher on the day, boosted by a fall in the US dollar. The greenback’s weakening comes on the back of softer US PMI data.

  • WTI JUN 24 up 1.8% at 83.38$/bbl
  • The US extended sanctions on Iran’s oil sector to include foreign ports, vessels and refineries that knowingly process or ship Iranian crude; analysts don’t expect the new measures to have a material impact on Iran’s crude exports.
  • Limited impact is expected on Iran’s oil exports from new US legislation: FGE.
  • The US is not incentivised to enforce sanctions, especially in an election year: Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen.
  • Approved US aid for Ukraine may help to stop its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure: RBC’s Helima Croft.
  • US crude oil inventories likely rose for a fifth straight week: WSJ survey.
  • Russia expects its crude oil supplies will grow over the next three years after being stable in 2024, according to Bloomberg.
  • Russia’s seaborne crude exports maintained a multi-month high in the four weeks to April 21, according to Bloomberg.
  • Asia has lost 920kbd of medium/heavy sour barrels in Q1 2024 y/y with more volumes at risk according to Vortexa.
  • Exports of the four main Nigerian crude grades are 620.8k b/d for June.
  • The oil market is going through a consolidation period but is genuinely tight and the chances of oil prices rising above $100/bbl are “extraordinarily high:” analyst Jeff Currie.
  • An oil price rise above $100/bbl “would require a geopolitical event,” said Eric Robertsen at Standard Chartered but prices in the mid- to low-$90/bbl is “very plausible.”
  • Brent price forecasts of $90/bbl in Q2, $92/bbl in Q3 and $87/bbl in Q4 are driven by soft near-term fundamentals and geopolitical risks: BNP Paribas.