Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Rises on Softer USD

WTI is approaching US close trading higher on the day, boosted by a fall in the US dollar. The greenback’s weakening comes on the back of softer US PMI data.

• WTI JUN 24 up 1.8% at 83.38$/bbl
• The US extended sanctions on Iran’s oil sector to include foreign ports, vessels and refineries that knowingly process or ship Iranian crude; analysts don’t expect the new measures to have a material impact on Iran’s crude exports.
• Limited impact is expected on Iran’s oil exports from new US legislation: FGE.
• The US is not incentivised to enforce sanctions, especially in an election year: Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen.
• Approved US aid for Ukraine may help to stop its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure: RBC’s Helima Croft.
• US crude oil inventories likely rose for a fifth straight week: WSJ survey.
• Russia expects its crude oil supplies will grow over the next three years after being stable in 2024, according to Bloomberg.
• Russia’s seaborne crude exports maintained a multi-month high in the four weeks to April 21, according to Bloomberg.
• Asia has lost 920kbd of medium/heavy sour barrels in Q1 2024 y/y with more volumes at risk according to Vortexa.
• Exports of the four main Nigerian crude grades are 620.8k b/d for June.
• The oil market is going through a consolidation period but is genuinely tight and the chances of oil prices rising above $100/bbl are “extraordinarily high:” analyst Jeff Currie.
• An oil price rise above $100/bbl “would require a geopolitical event,” said Eric Robertsen at Standard Chartered but prices in the mid- to low-$90/bbl is “very plausible.”
• Brent price forecasts of $90/bbl in Q2, $92/bbl in Q3 and $87/bbl in Q4 are driven by soft near-term fundamentals and geopolitical risks: BNP Paribas.