Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Sees Late Dip

Crude Prices have dipped during US trading, as concerns on demand uncertainty continue to weigh on prices. Hopes for de-escalation have also pushed down prices amid headlines that Hamas will release foreign hostages in the next few days.

• WTI DEC 23 down -1.2% at 81.29$/bbl
• WTI-Brent down -0.84$/bbl at -6.17$/bbl
• Reuters carrying comments from the spokesperson of "Hamas' armed wing" stating that he, "told mediators that group will release some foreign captives in coming days."
• The API oil inventory data is due for release today at 16:30 ET. EIA are today due to update the monthly petroleum supply and the crude oil and natural gas production data for August.
• Nymex WTI open interest has halted the declining trend seen for much of October and back up to 1.67m from a low of 1.62m last week but compared to 1.8m seen at the start of the month.
• US crude production rose from 12.96mbpd in July to a record high of 13.05mbpd in August surpassing the pre-covid levels and up from 11.99mbpd in Aug 2022.
• Venezuela’s Supreme Justice Tribunal said Monday it has suspended the results of the opposition presidential primary that took place this month, further complicating the stance of US towards Venezuelan oil and gas sanctions which it eased earlier this month in return for fairer elections in the country.
• Heavy crude prices are encountering sharp falls following the easing of sanctions on Venezuela, according to BNEF.
• The Panama Canal Authority is currently taking further steps to reduce traffic by reducing the number of ships that can cross, and force those that are allowed to pass to reduce their drafts, amid drought after precipitation in October fell to the lowest on record since 1950, according to a statement.
• The latest China Manufacturing October PMI showed a downside surprise back to mid year levels at 49.5 adding to uncertainty over the strength of the China economy towards year end.
• Fundamentals will be key in driving oil prices, as the effect of the Israel-Hamas war on crude is starting to wane, with Brent crude oil to trade around $90-100/bbl over the next 12 months, UBS said in a note.
• OPEC oil output rose for the third straight months in October, according to a Reuters survey Oct. 31. OPEC pumped 27.9m b/d in October, the survey found, up 180k b/d in September.
• OPEC+'s aggressive output cuts are set to tighten the market once again despite soft demand according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Oil prices have yet to see a significant spike due to the Israel-Hamas war but any escalation of the conflict is an upside risk to prices in the near term.
• OPEC Africa crude exports rise to a multi-year high in October led by an increase from Nigeria according to Kpler.
• Russian crude exports are on track to hit a four-month high pace, according to Platts vessel tracking.
• Libya is planning to load 8.2m bl of crude, equivalent to 273k b/d, based on a loading programme seen by Bloomberg.