Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Set for Robust Gains

Crude is heading for US close with robust gains amid support from a better risk sentiment. WTI has also broken through the May 29 technical resistance. A Reuters survey expects US crude stocks to have fallen by 2.3m bbl last week, likely supportive.

• WTI JUL 24 up 1.2% at 81.26$/bbl
• A tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of the Western Gulf of Mexico Coast.
• The API US oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET ahead of the day delayed EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on June 20.
• Russian seaborne crude exports ticked higher in the latest data to June 16 according to Bloomberg vessel tracking.
• The National Assembly approved extending the contract for the Petropiar joint venture between state-owned PSVSA and Chevron until 2047, according to Bloomberg.
• US shale drillers will continue to raise oil production for years before stalling around 2028, stymying OPEC+ hopes for a faster fall-off in US production, according to HSBC, cited by Bloomberg.
• The startup of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline could help fuel Canadian oil production growth in 2024-26, according to BNEF.
• Angola is to load 1.26m b/d of crude in August, the highest level since Sep. 2020, according to Bloomberg.
• Goldman Sachs see Brent rising “modestly” to an August peak of $86/bbl amid a summer deficit, according to Bloomberg.
• Brent is forecast at $85.2/bbl in 2024 and $78.5/bbl in 2025, according to the latest OIES Oil Monthly report with an average of $86.5/bbl in H2 2024 due to stock draws through year-end.
• The Ivory Coast expects a more than threefold increase in its oil output by 2027 amid recent discoveries in its Baleine and Calao fields, according to Reuters.