Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Struggles for Direction

Crude has struggled for direction today, oscillating between $77.67/b and $78.86/b. Lower-than expected PPI data has been offset by expectations of a delayed start to Fed rate cuts, which could limit demand.

• WTI JUL 24 up 0% at 78.53$/bbl
• The US Fed yesterday held rates steady at its June FOMC meeting, signalling just one cut in 2024 and likely to weigh on demand prospects
• May PPI -0.2% M/M (0.1% expected); core PPI (ex food/energy/trade) 0% (0.3% expected)
• The Trans Mountain pipeline is running around 80% capacity, as 22 oil tankers are scheduled to load in Vancouver in June with crude from the expanded pipeline, Trans Mountain said cited by Reuters.
• Crude loadings from Guyana are planned at 20m bbl, or 645k b/d in August, according to a loading programme seen by Bloomberg.
• Russia intends to compensate for overproduction above its OPEC+ quota through 2025 according to the energy ministry Thursday.
• Russia is changing how oil output data used to compile OPEC+ production estimates is reported, according to Bloomberg, amid greater scrutiny over production cuts.
• Russia’s President Valdimir Putin extended a special economic decree linked with preventing some foreign states from accessing Russian oil and products until December 31, according to Interfax.
• The UK announced wide ranging sanctions on Russia, including a first attempt to crack down on the shadow fleet of tankers moving Russia’s oil, according to Bloomberg.
• OPEC does not see a peak in oil demand in its long-term forecast and expects demand to increase to 116m b/d or higher by 2045, its secretary general Hathaim Al Ghais said, cited by Reuters.