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FOREX: Oil finishes flat, deflating USD and JPY
-JPY had been one of the big gainers following Trump's unexpected strike against
Iran last week, but that performance faded fast Monday as markets chose to sell
off gains in WTI and Brent crude futures, which helped sooth the risk-off tone
and a (slight) recovery in equities. This kept a bidtone under USD/JPY and
EUR/JPY, keeping JPY at the bottom of the G10 pile alongside commodity-tied
currencies including the AUD. The USD index traded below the Friday lows and is
narrowing the gap on the opening levels of 2020. The moves followed generally
better European PMI data and no further escalation in US/Iran hostilities.
-GBP was favoured as PMI data fared better than expected (the services sector
came in at 50.0 vs. 49.1 expected), which helped support the GBP bid and gave
GBP/USD a boost back above $1.3150. This kept GBP realised vols elevated after
the post-election swings fed into the New Year, but implied vols remain
depressed below 8 points.
-Tuesday brings Eurozone retail sales and CPI data, Canadian trade balance and
US final durable goods orders. The speaker slate is empty.