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OIL: Firmer But Mostly Underperforming Other Commodities

OIL
BulletEnergy BulletsCommodities

Oil prices are tracking modestly higher in the first part of Monday trade. The active WTI was last near $68.40/bbl, while Brent (for Dec Delivery) was close to $71.90/bbl. This leaves both benchmarks around 0.35-0.45% higher and building on modest gains from Friday's session.  

  • WTI couldn't get above $69/bbl in earlier trade. recent lows just under $67/bbl remain intact, beyond that lies the earlier September lows near $65/bbl. Hence we remain reasonably close to recent lows.
  • Sentiment is likely be aided, at the margins, by positive China related asset gains. This follows last week's stimulus announcements and then the weekend news of easier housing restrictions in 3 major cities. This offset mixed PMI prints from China, with the official manufacturing read improving but still remaining sub 50.0. The Caixin PMI slumped comfortably back below this point.
  • Still, oil's gains today compared to more metal related products remains much more modest.
  • On-going focus remains on Middle East tensions following Israel's killing of Hezbollah's leader, while Israel also bombed targets in Yemen. The response from Iran will be in focus, although with the conflict nearly coming up to a 1yr anniversary, the market may keep odds of a significant escalation in the conflict as fairly low at this stage. 
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Oil prices are tracking modestly higher in the first part of Monday trade. The active WTI was last near $68.40/bbl, while Brent (for Dec Delivery) was close to $71.90/bbl. This leaves both benchmarks around 0.35-0.45% higher and building on modest gains from Friday's session.  

  • WTI couldn't get above $69/bbl in earlier trade. recent lows just under $67/bbl remain intact, beyond that lies the earlier September lows near $65/bbl. Hence we remain reasonably close to recent lows.
  • Sentiment is likely be aided, at the margins, by positive China related asset gains. This follows last week's stimulus announcements and then the weekend news of easier housing restrictions in 3 major cities. This offset mixed PMI prints from China, with the official manufacturing read improving but still remaining sub 50.0. The Caixin PMI slumped comfortably back below this point.
  • Still, oil's gains today compared to more metal related products remains much more modest.
  • On-going focus remains on Middle East tensions following Israel's killing of Hezbollah's leader, while Israel also bombed targets in Yemen. The response from Iran will be in focus, although with the conflict nearly coming up to a 1yr anniversary, the market may keep odds of a significant escalation in the conflict as fairly low at this stage.