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OIL: Fresh Weakness, Recent Recovery Likely Limited To Correction Status

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Initial support levels in WTI & Brent breached, with the benchmarks ~$1.50 below yesterday’s settlement levels at typing.

  • Our commodities team notes that crude falls through the lows of the last week with current OPEC plans to increase supply in December and the prospect of returning barrels from Libya offsetting geopolitical risks.
  • Our technical analyst notes that WTI futures have reversed a large part of their recent gains.
  • This affirms the strength of resistance at the 50-day EMA ($71.77), which remains the key upside hurdle for bulls.
  • The latest sell-off also adds weight to the view that the recovery since Sep 9 is likely a correction.
  • Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would refocus attention on the Sep 10 low and bear trigger ($64.61).
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Initial support levels in WTI & Brent breached, with the benchmarks ~$1.50 below yesterday’s settlement levels at typing.

  • Our commodities team notes that crude falls through the lows of the last week with current OPEC plans to increase supply in December and the prospect of returning barrels from Libya offsetting geopolitical risks.
  • Our technical analyst notes that WTI futures have reversed a large part of their recent gains.
  • This affirms the strength of resistance at the 50-day EMA ($71.77), which remains the key upside hurdle for bulls.
  • The latest sell-off also adds weight to the view that the recovery since Sep 9 is likely a correction.
  • Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would refocus attention on the Sep 10 low and bear trigger ($64.61).