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OIL: Further Oil Inventory Gains Could Put Prices Under Pressure: BofA

OIL

A continuation of the unseasonal trend of rising inventories of crude and products in place since February could put oil prices under pressure in Q3, according to Bank of America cited by Bloomberg.

  • “It is not yet clear whether balances will firm enough in Q3 2024 to tip the market from a large apparent surplus into a deficit that can lift prices,” a report said. “Oil will buckle if rapid inventory builds persist.” 
  • Consumption growth probably slowed further in Q2 after global oil demand decelerated to 890kb/d y/y in Q1.
  • China’s manufacturing is sluggish due to softer demand from the West while US economic indicators suggest some headwinds.
  • Refining margins could dip further in H2 if new Atlantic Basin capacity ramps on time and major outages are avoided.
  • Demand and consumption for jet fuel should continue to rise.
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