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OIL: IEA Report Suggests Shift in Drivers of Global Oil Demand

OIL

IEA forecast for global oil demand was just slightly lower than predicted in last month’s report with growth of 970kb/d in 2024 and 953kb/d in 2025 but the report shows a meaningful shift in drivers.

  • Chinese oil demand contracted for a third consecutive month in June, driven by a slump in industrial inputs, including for the petrochemical sector. Preliminary trade data suggests further weakness in July with crude oil imports at the lowest level since lockdowns in September 2022.
  • Signs of demand strength have however shown in recent months in advanced economies, especially for US gasoline. The US economy has outperformed peers, with a resilient service sector buttressing miles driven.
  • OECD oil consumption has switched from a 300kb/d annual contraction in Q1 2024 to growth of 190kb/d in Q2.
  • OPEC+ still plans to gradually unwind voluntary production cuts from Q4 despite the lower Chinese oil demand growth which could push the market into a surplus with supply growth from the US, Guyana, Canada and Brazil.
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