Oil Lower As Risk Aversion Offsets Fresh Supply Concerns

Brent dipped to fresh lows near $92/bbl on Thursday before rebounding back above $94.50/bbl. We finished the NY session at $93.30/bbl, down 0.25%. This is the third straight loss for the benchmark, but we closed last week at $93.93/bbl, so only sit modestly lower. WTI finished back under $90/bbl, seeing slightly larger losses over recent sessions.

• Support for oil benchmarks came after Russia's ban on gasoline and diesel exports. We saw diesel futures spike, but gains were pared as the NY session progressed on Thursday.
• Working the other way was broader risk off in markets, with equity weakness across the board, while aggregate commodity indices softened, particularly in the metals space. Continued fallout from the Fed's decision on Wednesday and higher US yields weighed.
• Morgan Stanley has raised its Q4 Brent forecast to $95/b, up from $82.5/b, although it remains sceptical that prices could surpass $100/bbl.
• For Brent, the 20-day EMA sits back near $90.74/bbl, while recent highs rest near $96/bbl.