Oil Lower on Chinese PMIs and Return of Libya Supply

Oil and refined product spreads are lower this morning on concerns for global oil demand growth after weaker than expected Chinese PMI data over the weekend.

• The return of Libya oil supply to 1.2mbpd after NOC lifted force majeure on oil fields has also added to the downward pressure on crude prices. Ongoing political unrest and armed clashes could still add uncertainty of future supply.
  • Brent OCT 22 down -0.6% at 103.32$/bbl
  • WTI SEP 22 down -1.1% at 97.55$/bbl
  • Gasoil AUG 22 down -4% at 1061.75$/mt
  • WTI-Brent up 4.01$/bbl at -7.61$/bbl
• The tight global supply picture continues to drive strength in time spreads, especially at the front of the curve. Once again, the longer data Dec-Dec spread is following moves in the outright futures although remains strongly backwardated.
  • Brent OCT 22-NOV 22 up 0.12$/bbl at 2.65$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 down -0.14$/bbl at 10.03$/bbl
• OPEC will meet on Wed 3^rd Aug this week with the US hoping they will agree an increase in production. Indications so far suggest supply will be kept steady or just add a modest increase with many members still struggling with existing targets. OPEC quota compliance is reported to be up as high as 320%.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 31.88$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.7$/bbl at 49.31$/bbl