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Free AccessOil Market Balanced in 2024 but Surplus in 2025: OIES Oil Monthly
OIES forecast Brent at $82.1/bbl in 2024 and $79.1/bbl in 2025 according to the latest Oil Monthly report.
- Brent is seen tracking within the $75-85/bbl range with a balanced market this year but with risks skewed to the downside. 1Q24 is projected at an 840kb/d deficit with crude stocks falling sharply but flips into surplus in 2Q24 and 3Q24 assuming the gradual return of voluntary OPEC+ cuts in 2Q.
- An extension of the additional voluntary cuts in 2Q24 alone could push the oil market into a 460 kb/d deficit for the full year.
- 1Q25 is expected in the $75-80/bbl range as the supply/demand balance loosens but with 2025 risks shifting to the upside. A 370 kb/d surplus is forecast for 2025.
- Global oil demand is revised up by 75kb/d to grow 1.5mb/d in 2024 on small upgrades in the non-OECD outlook mainly in China and India. Demand growth in 2025 to slow to 1.1mb/d. Transport fuel demand slows near 2010-2019 levels in both years at around 1mb/d.
- Global oil supply is forecast to grow 1.3 mb/d in 2024 and 1.5 mb/d in 2025 with non-OPEC growth of 930 kb/d in 2024 led by the US and Brazil. Non-OPEC crude growth to slow further to 610kb/d in 2025.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.