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Oil Market Balanced in 2024 but Surplus in 2025: OIES Oil Monthly

OIL

OIES forecast Brent at $82.1/bbl in 2024 and $79.1/bbl in 2025 according to the latest Oil Monthly report.

  • Brent is seen tracking within the $75-85/bbl range with a balanced market this year but with risks skewed to the downside. 1Q24 is projected at an 840kb/d deficit with crude stocks falling sharply but flips into surplus in 2Q24 and 3Q24 assuming the gradual return of voluntary OPEC+ cuts in 2Q.
  • An extension of the additional voluntary cuts in 2Q24 alone could push the oil market into a 460 kb/d deficit for the full year.
  • 1Q25 is expected in the $75-80/bbl range as the supply/demand balance loosens but with 2025 risks shifting to the upside. A 370 kb/d surplus is forecast for 2025.
  • Global oil demand is revised up by 75kb/d to grow 1.5mb/d in 2024 on small upgrades in the non-OECD outlook mainly in China and India. Demand growth in 2025 to slow to 1.1mb/d. Transport fuel demand slows near 2010-2019 levels in both years at around 1mb/d.
  • Global oil supply is forecast to grow 1.3 mb/d in 2024 and 1.5 mb/d in 2025 with non-OPEC growth of 930 kb/d in 2024 led by the US and Brazil. Non-OPEC crude growth to slow further to 610kb/d in 2025.

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