Oil Markets Continue Ride on U.S. Optimism

Crude ticks higher Friday carrying momentum from more positive economic data out of the U.S. this week, supporting September rate cut optimism, while this weeks EIA report showed more bullish summer demand.

• Brent SEP 24 up 0.5% at 85.86$/bbl
• WTI AUG 24 up 0.7% at 83.17$/bbl
• Gasoil AUG 24 up 0.1% at 778.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.04$/bbl at -4.09$/bbl
• Crude and gasoline stockpiles declined in this week EIA report while refining numbers also came in strong.
• U.S. gasoline demand was at 9.4 million bpd in the week ended July 5, the highest for the week that includes the Independence Day holiday since 2019.
• Caution is usually advised around EIA numbers on a holiday week after OPIS and GasBuddy figures indicated more lacklustre demand.
• U.S. inflation cooled to the slowest pace since 2021, supporting Q3 rate cut optimism and a move which pressured the dollar, both supportive of crude this week.
• A ring of wildfires has erupted around Canada’s oil-sands hub Fort McMurray, adding new threats to crude production
• Prompt spreads signal near term tightening conditions, especially for WTI.
• Brent SEP 24-OCT 24 up 0.1$/bbl at 1.08$/bbl
• Brent OCT 24-NOV 24 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.87$/bbl
• The OPEC report this week projects demand for OPEC+ crude at 43.6 million bpd in the third quarter, much more than the group is currently pumping.
• OPEC+ crude production output hit an 11-month low in the latest report while Russian in particular showed greater intent towards quota compliance.
• US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 22.83$/bbl
• US ULSD crack down 0$/bbl at 23.09$/bbl