Oil Markets Look to Potential Canada Oil Supply Threat from Wildfires

Out of control wildfires in Canada leave oil markets on high alert to their potential impact on up to around ~400,000 bpd of crude production at present by most estimates.

• Rystad said Thursday about 500,000 bpd of marketable oil sands production could be within 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) of an out-of-control blaze. It is equivalent to about 10% of total output in the province.
• Rystad added as much as 1.2mn bpd could be within 20km of fire risk.
• Arid and dry conditions at present have increased their chances of spreading.
• Alberta is near the epicenter of Candian fires. As of Wednesday, the government there reported 136 ongoing wildfires, with four being “of note.”
• Only one fire in Alberta is listed as out of control and is well away from Fort McMurray - near Slave Lake.
• MEG has evacuated non-essential personnel as a blaze approaches its Christina Lake site but said production is not impacted at present. It produces around 100,000 bpd.
• Suncors 231,000 bpd Firebag facility is running at reduced rates because of the fire threat.