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Oil Markets Weigh Keystone and Russian Supply

OIL

Crude has gained slightly this morning as uncertainty lingers around the Keystone restart and concerns that Russia may cut production because of Western sanctions.

  • Brent FEB 23 up 0.6% at 76.52$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 23 up 0.8% at 71.6$/bbl
  • Gasoil DEC 22 up 0.2% at 822.5$/mt
  • • WTI-Brent up 0.2$/bbl at -4.75$/bbl

  • The market remains weak with recession fears and weaker oil demand weighing on prices and with possible Russian crude oil supply disruption and Chinese demand recovery providing upside risks.
  • A leak in the Keystone pipeline caused a short spike in WTI prices last week with any prolonged outage likely to impact US crude inventories. Canada’s TC Energy said they have not determined the cause of the leak Sunday and gave no timelines to its restart.
  • The impact of Russian sanctions on longer term export flows is still unclear. Putin said on Friday that Russia could cut production and would refuse to sell oil to any country that imposes a price cap on Russian exports agreed by G7 nations.
  • WTI JAN 23-FEB 23 up 0.01$/bbl at -0.18$/bbl
  • Brent FEB 23-MAR 23 up 0.13$/bbl at -0.37$/bbl
  • Weaker oil product demand has also been weighing on diesel and gasoline crack spreads last week with the EIA data showing falling US demand.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 14.62$/bbl
  • • US ULSD crack up 1$/bbl at 47.59$/bbl

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