OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Holds Within Range

Crude prices are holding withing yesterday’s trading range after pulling back from a Brent high of $85.81/bbl yesterday amid potential consumption weakness in US and China. Tighter supply this quarter, inventory draws and prospects of easing Fed policy are supportive and reflected in strong prompt crude time spreads.

• Out of control wildfires in Canada leave oil markets on high alert to their potential impact on up to around ~400,000 bpd of crude production at present by most estimates. Fears over wildfires in Alberta has tightened prompt spreads this week.
• Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said there was no scope for talks with Ukraine over stopped pipeline transit of oil impacting Slovakia and Hungary.
• Tighter global oil balances are expected in Q3 2024 on seasonal demand, before weakening in Q4 with additional supplies from OPEC+ and the US, according to BNP Paribas.
• A drone strike by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on the Israeli city of Tel Aviv on the morning of 19 July raises the prospect of the gov't of PM Benjamin Netanyahu launching retaliatory, and potentially escalatory, attacks.
  • Brent SEP 24 down 0.3% at 84.85$/bbl
  • WTI AUG 24 down 0.5% at 82.44$/bbl
  • Brent SEP 24-OCT 24 down 0.07$/bbl at 1.11$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 24-DEC 25 down 0.12$/bbl at 4.81$/bbl