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OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Plummets

OIL
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Crude markets have plunged into losses since late yesterday due to a reduced risk premium after news that Israel told the US that it would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure but would focus on military sites, according to the Washington Post.

  • Brent DEC 24 down 4.5% at 74.01$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 24 down 4.7% at 70.34$/bbl
  • Israeli broadcaster KAN reporting that PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant have agreed on a response to the 1 October Iranian missile strikes on Israel.
  • The crude options skews have reversed much of the move seen in early October as the market adjusts the risk premium from potential Middle East supply disruption.
  • The IEA has trimmed its 2024 oil demand growth forecast for a third month in a row as Chinese demand weighs on oil markets.
  • OPEC yesterday revised their demand outlook lower for the third straight month with 2024 down by 106kb/d to 1.93mb/d y/y and 2025 revised down by 102kb/d to 1.64mb/d y/y but maintained non-DoC supply growth unchanged.
  • US crude stocks likely climbed by 1.7m bbl in the week to Oct. 11 to 424.4m bbl, according to analysts surveyed by Platts.
  • Russia’s four-week average crude shipments edged up to another three-month high with seasonal maintenance at the country’s refineries keeping domestic oil production depressed, Bloomberg said.
  • Citi maintains a base case for Brent of $74/bbl for Q4 2024 and $65/bbl for Q1 2025, according to Bloomberg citing a note published yesterday before news that Israel may limit retaliation against Iran to military targets.
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Crude markets have plunged into losses since late yesterday due to a reduced risk premium after news that Israel told the US that it would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure but would focus on military sites, according to the Washington Post.

  • Brent DEC 24 down 4.5% at 74.01$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 24 down 4.7% at 70.34$/bbl
  • Israeli broadcaster KAN reporting that PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant have agreed on a response to the 1 October Iranian missile strikes on Israel.
  • The crude options skews have reversed much of the move seen in early October as the market adjusts the risk premium from potential Middle East supply disruption.
  • The IEA has trimmed its 2024 oil demand growth forecast for a third month in a row as Chinese demand weighs on oil markets.
  • OPEC yesterday revised their demand outlook lower for the third straight month with 2024 down by 106kb/d to 1.93mb/d y/y and 2025 revised down by 102kb/d to 1.64mb/d y/y but maintained non-DoC supply growth unchanged.
  • US crude stocks likely climbed by 1.7m bbl in the week to Oct. 11 to 424.4m bbl, according to analysts surveyed by Platts.
  • Russia’s four-week average crude shipments edged up to another three-month high with seasonal maintenance at the country’s refineries keeping domestic oil production depressed, Bloomberg said.
  • Citi maintains a base case for Brent of $74/bbl for Q4 2024 and $65/bbl for Q1 2025, according to Bloomberg citing a note published yesterday before news that Israel may limit retaliation against Iran to military targets.