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OIL: North Sea Price Rally May be Overdone: Sparta

OIL

North Sea tightening is leading to a substantial deterioration in arbs out of the region, according to Sparta Commodities. The rally in BFOET may be overdone with cheaper landing of WTI and in NW Europe Johan Sverdrup is landing cheaper than Forties.

  • Strong and sustained European buying in required to maintain the recent North Sea bullish pricing.
  • Bonny Light is at a relatively rare discount to Forties and Sverdrup for early August arrival.
  • “Evidence suggests Brent might have gotten ahead of itself in the very short term and with Chinese crude buying still seemingly tepid.”
  • Broader oil markets have gained on stronger seasonal demand in the US, Middle East geopolitical risk, a rebound in managed money positions and tightness expected in Q3.
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