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OIL: OIES Reduce 2024 Brent Forecast by $3.1/bbbl to $82.3/bbbl

OIL
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OIES have reduced the 2024 Brent forecast by $3.1/bbbl to $82.3/bbbl and 2025 by $1.4/bbl to $77.1/bbbl in 2025 driven by demand-side pressures mainly focused on China, US recession fears, and very bearish speculative positioning.

  • Brent is to rebound to the $75-85/bbl range in Q4 2024 with the market holding a deficit throughout H2 while geopolitical risks remain heightened.
  • Prices should soften in 2025, assuming OPEC+ unwinds its cuts according to its planned schedule.
  • A 780kb/d deficit is forecast in 2024 but the expected surplus in 2025 has been reduced by 210kb/d to 520 kb/d.
  • Global demand growth forecast revised lower by 100kb/d to 1.3mb/d in both 2024 and 2025 on weaker Chinese data but partly offset by resilient India and OECD demand. China’s demand growth outlook for 2024 was cut by 210kb/d to 350 kb/d.
  • Weakness is mostly in gasoil/diesel demand countered by strengthening petchems.
  • Global oil supply is lowered by 90kb/d in 2024 and by 320kb/d in 2025 with non-OPEC+ crude growth lower to 820kb/d kb/d in 2024 and 1mb/d in 2025. 
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OIES have reduced the 2024 Brent forecast by $3.1/bbbl to $82.3/bbbl and 2025 by $1.4/bbl to $77.1/bbbl in 2025 driven by demand-side pressures mainly focused on China, US recession fears, and very bearish speculative positioning.

  • Brent is to rebound to the $75-85/bbl range in Q4 2024 with the market holding a deficit throughout H2 while geopolitical risks remain heightened.
  • Prices should soften in 2025, assuming OPEC+ unwinds its cuts according to its planned schedule.
  • A 780kb/d deficit is forecast in 2024 but the expected surplus in 2025 has been reduced by 210kb/d to 520 kb/d.
  • Global demand growth forecast revised lower by 100kb/d to 1.3mb/d in both 2024 and 2025 on weaker Chinese data but partly offset by resilient India and OECD demand. China’s demand growth outlook for 2024 was cut by 210kb/d to 350 kb/d.
  • Weakness is mostly in gasoil/diesel demand countered by strengthening petchems.
  • Global oil supply is lowered by 90kb/d in 2024 and by 320kb/d in 2025 with non-OPEC+ crude growth lower to 820kb/d kb/d in 2024 and 1mb/d in 2025.