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OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: WTI Falls 2% on Week

OIL
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WTI is set to fall 2% on the week, driven by the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, albeit a fragile one. Downside is moderated by reports this week suggesting OPEC+ is discussing output return delays for Q1 2025.

  • WTI JAN 25 down 0.2% at 68.56$/bbl
  • The ceasefire remains in place, but Israel and Lebanon blamed each other on Thursday for violating a fragile US-brokered agreement that came into effect a day earlier.
  • Saudi Aramco may cut the Arab Light OSP to Asia by $0.70/bbl in January to a premium of $1.00/bbl to the Oman-Dubai benchmark, according to a Bloomberg survey.
  • The ramp up in Canadian flows following the TMX expansion has pushed more barrels towards PADD 5 and Asia since opening Vortexa vessel tracking shows.
  • The ceasefire this week between Hezbollah and Israel removes “one strand”  of the geopolitical risk premium that has held up in oil this year according to David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus.
  • Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Friday her administration had a plan to deal with the possible imposition of a 25% U.S. tariff on Mexican crude oil but was light on details.
  • Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation produced a record 400k b/d of oil in Q3, according to Rystad Energy, cited by Reuters.
  • Freight rates for Russian oil transportation are set to rise amid coming winter season and new sanctions against the Russian fleet, traders told Reuters.
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WTI is set to fall 2% on the week, driven by the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, albeit a fragile one. Downside is moderated by reports this week suggesting OPEC+ is discussing output return delays for Q1 2025.

  • WTI JAN 25 down 0.2% at 68.56$/bbl
  • The ceasefire remains in place, but Israel and Lebanon blamed each other on Thursday for violating a fragile US-brokered agreement that came into effect a day earlier.
  • Saudi Aramco may cut the Arab Light OSP to Asia by $0.70/bbl in January to a premium of $1.00/bbl to the Oman-Dubai benchmark, according to a Bloomberg survey.
  • The ramp up in Canadian flows following the TMX expansion has pushed more barrels towards PADD 5 and Asia since opening Vortexa vessel tracking shows.
  • The ceasefire this week between Hezbollah and Israel removes “one strand”  of the geopolitical risk premium that has held up in oil this year according to David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus.
  • Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Friday her administration had a plan to deal with the possible imposition of a 25% U.S. tariff on Mexican crude oil but was light on details.
  • Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation produced a record 400k b/d of oil in Q3, according to Rystad Energy, cited by Reuters.
  • Freight rates for Russian oil transportation are set to rise amid coming winter season and new sanctions against the Russian fleet, traders told Reuters.