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OIL: Oil Market ‘Complacent’ to Iran-Sanctions Risks: Rapidan

OIL
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The oil market is “still complacent” about the geopolitical risks posed by an extension of sanctions against Iran and Russia, according to Rapidan Energy’s Bob McNally.

  • “The next administration’s priority will be to leverage Iran’s vulnerability to oil sanctions and get to a deal” on nuclear activities, McNally told Bloomberg.
  • Rapidan expects a renewal of the previous maximum pressure campaign against Iran, which would curtail around 0.5m b/d of Iranian exports.
  • However, a “whole-hog” effort could cut Iranian exports by 1m-1.2m bd, which would remove the threat of oversupply forecasted for next year.
  • Iran said it will increase its nuclear fuel-making capacity after it was censured by the United Nations atomic watchdog, heightening tensions just days after it signalled a willingness to ease them, Bloomberg noted.
  • Trump will also likely continue current efforts to dampen Russian energy exports, Rapidan said.
  • “An armistice, but no peace treaty, no ending of sanctions,” McNally said. “If anything, sanctions are getting tighter, not looser.”
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The oil market is “still complacent” about the geopolitical risks posed by an extension of sanctions against Iran and Russia, according to Rapidan Energy’s Bob McNally.

  • “The next administration’s priority will be to leverage Iran’s vulnerability to oil sanctions and get to a deal” on nuclear activities, McNally told Bloomberg.
  • Rapidan expects a renewal of the previous maximum pressure campaign against Iran, which would curtail around 0.5m b/d of Iranian exports.
  • However, a “whole-hog” effort could cut Iranian exports by 1m-1.2m bd, which would remove the threat of oversupply forecasted for next year.
  • Iran said it will increase its nuclear fuel-making capacity after it was censured by the United Nations atomic watchdog, heightening tensions just days after it signalled a willingness to ease them, Bloomberg noted.
  • Trump will also likely continue current efforts to dampen Russian energy exports, Rapidan said.
  • “An armistice, but no peace treaty, no ending of sanctions,” McNally said. “If anything, sanctions are getting tighter, not looser.”